Game Plan

The Model

Each card is generated by a ratings divergence model that compares team net ratings against the market line, adjusts for star injuries (calibrated on 2023-2025 game logs), and sizes the edge. STRONG LEAN = HIGH-tier (validated 57.6% on the 2025 holdout, +10% ROI on 151 picks). MODEST LEAN = MEDIUM-tier. PASS = no edge worth a write-up.

Data sources: Basketball Reference for season ratings (ORtg, DRtg, Pace), The Odds API for current consensus market lines, ESPN for injury reports.